Maybe they’re house-hunting and are concerned about mortgage rates. Maybe they’re up for a big promotion at a growing firm. Or maybe their company is going through a downsizing. Maybe they have more questions about the work you’re proposing: why is this needed, and why now?
And then there are some folks who know full well they’re going to vote No but will check Undecided because telling you No feels rude. (That “Midwestern nice,” ya know…?)
The voting behavior of Undecideds matters a great deal as you consider what plan you ultimately take to referendum (or not!) and communicate why you made the decision you did.
That’s why, during nearly every survey results presentation, we’re asked something to the effect of, “Those Undecideds in the middle there, do they typically end up voting Yes or No?”
For quite a while, our answer was something to the tune of, “Typically about 1/3 of your Undecideds break toward ‘Yes” and about 2/3 break toward ‘No.’”
This summer, we decided (intentional wordplay…) to revisit that answer.
What did we learn?
We confirmed that the 1/3-Yes, 2/3-No was true until late 2020. Then, things changed.
By 2021, the Undecided split fell to 1/4-Yes, 3/4-No. And then it kept falling.
Now, as we compare our predictions with ballot outcomes, we’re finding that, on average, you should expect that no more than 10% of your Undecided folks will break toward Yes (90% break toward No). Interestingly, this break-toward-yes decline has been steeper for capital than operational referendums. People seem to have made up their minds about operational referendums pretty clearly earlier in the process.
We don’t yet know why, exactly, this is occurring. However, we can likely point to the continued presence of elevated interest rates, inflation, and political uncertainty.
The School Perceptions Blog and Resource Center features the voices of our team members. This post was written by Rob DeMeuse, Research Director.